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IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Goteborg — Allsvenskan 2026

IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
L. Skjellerup 48'
G. Svensson 33'
10/6/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 26PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

IFK Norrkoping38%
×Draw24%
IFK Goteborg38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Norrkoping
1.53
IFK Goteborg
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

IFK Norrkoping
1.38
IFK Goteborg
1.17

allows per match

IFK Norrkoping
1.90
IFK Goteborg
1.69

finishing

IFK Norrkoping-0.55scores less
IFK Goteborg+0.33scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Norrkoping ↓

IFK Goteborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

IFK Norrkoping or draw
62%
IFK Norrkoping or IFK Goteborg
76%
Draw or IFK Goteborg
62%

Winning margin

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+
18%
IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals
78%
IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals
45%
IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals
20%
IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
78%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
45%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)
50%
IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Norrkoping at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.90 · 6 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.69 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.38 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.53

IFK Goteborg attack 1.17 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

IFK Norrkoping scores more
38%
level
24%
IFK Goteborg scores more
38%

IFK Norrkoping at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
J. KarlstrømIFK GoteborgIFK Goteborg · G
8.6

Match Events

30'
Carl Björk
33'
G. Svensson↳ O. Pettersson
35'
Tim Prica
48'
L. Skjellerup↳ R. Lundqvist
59'
V. Hammershøy-Mistrati← K. Khazeni
59'
D. Moberg Karlsson← Í. Sigurgeirsson
59'
M. Baggesen← A. Eriksson
61'
E. Salomonsson← O. Pettersson
76'
Ramon Pascal Lundqvist
78'
L. Shabani← T. Prica
84'
Sebastian Ohlsson
88'
J. Ortmark← Jesper Ceesay
90+3'
Max Watson

Possession

56%IFK

Shots

17IFK

Pass accuracy

53%IFK

Statistics

IFKIFK
Overview
56%Possession44%
17Total Shots11
1.24Expected Goals (xG)1.24
8Corners8
15Fouls20
Shots
17Total Shots11
6On Target5
6Off Target1
5Blocked5
14Inside Box9
3Outside Box2
Passing
56%Possession44%
426Total Passes317
350Accurate Passes232
82%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
15Fouls20
3Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Allsvenskan: IFK Norrkoping 0–2 IFK Goteborg

IFK Goteborg beat IFK Norrkoping 2-0 in Allsvenskan on October 6, 2024.

Goals: G. Svensson (33'), L. Skjellerup (48').

IFK Norrkoping controlled possession (56%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at PlatinumCars Arena in Norrköping.