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IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping — Allsvenskan 2026

IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
4/20/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 4Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

IFK Goteborg46%
×Draw23%
IFK Norrkoping31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Goteborg
1.79
IFK Norrkoping
1.43

IFK Goteborg creates 25% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

IFK Goteborg
1.23
IFK Norrkoping
1.32

allows per match

IFK Goteborg
1.53
IFK Norrkoping
2.35

finishing

IFK Goteborg-0.06on par
IFK Norrkoping-0.32scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

IFK Norrkoping →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw
69%
IFK Goteborg or IFK Norrkoping
77%
Draw or IFK Norrkoping
54%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
25%
IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
83%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
53%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
26%
IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals
76%
IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals
42%
IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
60%
IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.53 · 12 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.35 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.23 + IFK Norrkoping defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.79

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.32 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more
46%
level
23%
IFK Norrkoping scores more
31%

IFK Goteborg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: IFK Goteborg 1–1 IFK Norrkoping

IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping drew 1-1 in Allsvenskan on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Göteborg.