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IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Goteborg — Svenska Cupen 2019

IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
3/7/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IFK Norrkoping35%
×Draw23%
IFK Goteborg42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Norrkoping
1.53
IFK Goteborg
1.70

IFK Goteborg creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

creates per match

IFK Norrkoping
2.00
IFK Goteborg
2.47

allows per match

IFK Norrkoping
0.92
IFK Goteborg
1.06

finishing

IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par
IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Norrkoping ↓

IFK Goteborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

IFK Norrkoping or draw
58%
IFK Norrkoping or IFK Goteborg
77%
Draw or IFK Goteborg
65%

Winning margin

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+
17%
IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals
78%
IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals
45%
IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals
20%
IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
82%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
51%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)
45%
IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Norrkoping at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Norrkoping attack 2.00 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.53

IFK Goteborg attack 2.47 + IFK Norrkoping defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

IFK Norrkoping scores more
35%
level
23%
IFK Goteborg scores more
42%

IFK Goteborg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: IFK Norrkoping 1–1 IFK Goteborg

IFK Norrkoping and IFK Goteborg drew 1-1 in Svenska Cupen on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at PlatinumCars Arena in Norrköping.