IFK Norrkoping 3–4 Helsingborg: Result & Stats

IFK Norrkoping

FT

3 – 4

HT: 3 – 4

Helsingborg

S. Haksabanovic 24'

C. Nyman 12'

J. Levi 7'

M. Svensson 43'

A. van den Hurk 21', 17'

A. Andersson 2'

12/6/2020

Allsvenskan · Round 30Östgötaporten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

IFK Norrkoping53%

×Draw23%

Helsingborg24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK NorrkopingExpected goals in this matchHelsingborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.15

IFK Norrkoping

1.84

Helsingborg

1.15

IFK Norrkoping creates 60% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 45 away

1.65

creates per match

1.02

1.27

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

IFK Norrkoping

1.65

Helsingborg

1.02

allows per match

IFK Norrkoping

1.27

Helsingborg

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Helsingborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Norrkoping ↓

Helsingborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

IFK Norrkoping or draw

76%

IFK Norrkoping or Helsingborg

77%

Draw or Helsingborg

47%

Winning margin

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

30%

Helsingborg wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

84%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

55%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

28%

Helsingborg 1+ goals

68%

Helsingborg 2+ goals

32%

Helsingborg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

69%

Helsingborg (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Norrkoping at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.27 · 120 matches

Helsingborg away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.65 + Helsingborg defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.84

Helsingborg attack 1.02 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

IFK Norrkoping scores more

53%

level

23%

Helsingborg scores more

24%

IFK Norrkoping at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Jonathan Levi

IFK Norrkoping · F

7.3

Match Events

2'

A. Andersson

7'

J. Levi↳ I. Johannesson

10'

B. Olsen

12'

C. Nyman↳ L. Gerson

17'

A. van den Hurk↳ M. Olsson

21'

A. van den Hurk↳ M. Diskerud

24'

S. Haksabanovic

43'

M. Svensson↳ A. Andersson

56'

R. Tsouka

75'

H. Castegren← C. Telo

79'

E. Smith← M. Sema

82'

A. Landgren← K. Ceesay

82'

B. Olsen← M. Abubakari

87'

A. van den Hurk← N. Mbo

Possession

Shots

Statistics

IFKHelsingborg

Overview

56%Possession44%

22Total Shots14

11Corners9

13Fouls12

Shots

22Total Shots14

10On Target12

12Off Target2

Passing

56%Possession44%

Goalkeeping

8Saves7

Discipline

13Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1