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Helsingborg vs IFK Norrkoping — Superettan 2026

Helsingborg
Helsingborg
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
F. Holst-Larsen 73'
T. Prica 58'
5/31/2026SuperettanSuperettan · Round 10Olympia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Helsingborg31%
×Draw28%
IFK Norrkoping41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Helsingborg
1.04
IFK Norrkoping
1.25

IFK Norrkoping creates 20% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 8 away

creates per match

Helsingborg
1.45
IFK Norrkoping
1.38

allows per match

Helsingborg
1.11
IFK Norrkoping
0.63

finishing

Helsingborg+0.00on par
IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helsingborg ↓

IFK Norrkoping →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Helsingborg or draw
59%
Helsingborg or IFK Norrkoping
72%
Draw or IFK Norrkoping
69%

Winning margin

Helsingborg wins by 2+
12%
IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Helsingborg 1+ goals
65%
Helsingborg 2+ goals
28%
Helsingborg 3+ goals
9%
IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals
71%
IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals
36%
IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Helsingborg (draw refunded)
43%
IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helsingborg at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 73 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helsingborg attack 1.45 + IFK Norrkoping defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.04

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.38 + Helsingborg defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Helsingborg scores more
31%
level
28%
IFK Norrkoping scores more
41%

IFK Norrkoping at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
Ture Sandberg
43'
Tim Prica
55'
Viktor Christiansson
58'
T. Prica↳ N. Sernelius
62'
A. Bronner← V. Christiansson
62'
F. Holst-Larsen← T. Sandberg
63'
Lukas Kjellnas
68'
K. Appiah Nyarko← A. Akimey
68'
L. Hyppanen← L. Sadiku
70'
Daouda Amadou
70'
Lino Wernberg Hyppänen
73'
F. Holst-Larsen↳ R. Nelson
79'
L. Persson← L. Kjellnas
80'
J. Weber← V. O. Falth
80'
A. Fransson← T. Prica
84'
Axel Brönner
90+2'
L. Hedenberg← C. Biten
90+1'
L. Lif← E. Jemal

Possession

49%Helsingborg

Statistics

HelsingborgIFK
Overview
49%Possession51%
4Corners4
Shots
3On Target4
3Off Target4
0Blocked0
Passing
49%Possession51%
Discipline
3Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Helsingborg vs IFK Norrkoping

IFK Norrkoping beat Helsingborg 2-0 in Superettan on May 31, 2026.

Goals: T. Prica (58'), F. Holst-Larsen (73').

IFK Norrkoping dominated possession with 51% of the ball.

The match was played at Olympia in Helsingborg.