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Helsingborg vs IFK Norrkoping — Allsvenskan 2026

Helsingborg
Helsingborg
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
R. Jonsson 80'
A. van den Hurk 22', 9' (pen)
I. Johannesson 62'
A. Fransson 3'
8/10/2020AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 14Olympia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Helsingborg35%
×Draw27%
IFK Norrkoping39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Helsingborg
1.24
IFK Norrkoping
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 117 away

creates per match

Helsingborg
0.87
IFK Norrkoping
1.40

allows per match

Helsingborg
1.26
IFK Norrkoping
1.60

finishing

Helsingborg+0.00on par
IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helsingborg ↓

IFK Norrkoping →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Helsingborg or draw
61%
Helsingborg or IFK Norrkoping
73%
Draw or IFK Norrkoping
65%

Winning margin

Helsingborg wins by 2+
15%
IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Helsingborg 1+ goals
71%
Helsingborg 2+ goals
35%
Helsingborg 3+ goals
13%
IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals
74%
IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals
38%
IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Helsingborg (draw refunded)
47%
IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helsingborg at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helsingborg attack 0.87 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.24

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.40 + Helsingborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Helsingborg scores more
35%
level
27%
IFK Norrkoping scores more
39%

IFK Norrkoping at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Alexander FranssonIFK NorrkopingIFK Norrkoping · M
8.3

Match Events

3'
A. Fransson
5'
A. van den Hurk
9'
A. van den HurkPenalty
22'
A. van den HurkMissed penalty
22'
A. van den Hurk
29'
A. Gigovic
46'
J. Levi← P. Almqvist
62'
I. Johannesson↳ A. Fransson
70'
M. Abubakari
76'
A. Eriksson← R. Tsouka
76'
M. Svensson← J. Ceesay
78'
M. Olsson
80'
R. Jonsson↳ J. Ceesay
84'
A. Andersson← B. Olsen
85'
L. Gerson← H. Castegren
85'
L. Wahlqvist← L. Hallenius
90+2'
R. Lauritsen
90+4'
A. van den Hurk
90+4'
A. van den Hurk

Possession

35%Helsingborg

Shots

12Helsingborg

Pass accuracy

48%Helsingborg

Statistics

HelsingborgIFK
Overview
35%Possession65%
12Total Shots24
3Corners10
17Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots24
8On Target6
2Off Target11
2Blocked7
7Inside Box14
5Outside Box10
Passing
35%Possession65%
317Total Passes555
249Accurate Passes485
79%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
17Fouls11
5Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Allsvenskan: Helsingborg 3–2 IFK Norrkoping

Helsingborg beat IFK Norrkoping 3-2 in Allsvenskan on August 10, 2020.

Goals: A. Fransson (3'), A. van den Hurk (9' pen, 22'), I. Johannesson (62'), R. Jonsson (80').

IFK Norrkoping controlled possession (65%) and registered 24 shots to 12.

The match was played at Olympia in Helsingborg.