IFK Goteborg 0–4 IFK Norrkoping: Result & Stats

IFK Goteborg

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

IFK Norrkoping

L. Shabani 75'

A. Sigurðsson 65' (pen), 37'

A. Traustason 45+1'

3/5/2023

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IFK Goteborg34%

×Draw22%

IFK Norrkoping44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK GoteborgExpected goals in this matchIFK Norrkoping

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.85

IFK Goteborg

1.60

IFK Norrkoping

1.85

IFK Norrkoping creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

1.85

creates per match

2.85

0.85

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

IFK Goteborg

1.85

IFK Norrkoping

2.85

allows per match

IFK Goteborg

0.85

IFK Norrkoping

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

IFK Norrkoping →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw

56%

IFK Goteborg or IFK Norrkoping

78%

Draw or IFK Norrkoping

66%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

16%

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

80%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

47%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

22%

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

84%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

55%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

43%

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 2.85, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.85 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.60

IFK Norrkoping attack 2.85 + IFK Goteborg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more

34%

level

22%

IFK Norrkoping scores more

44%

IFK Norrkoping at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

A. Sigurðsson

45+1'

A. Traustason

46'

E. Salomonsson← S. Ohlsson

55'

L. Shabani← V. Hammershøy-Mistrati

65'

A. SigurðssonPenalty

70'

L. Carlstrand← S. Abdullahi

71'

G. Norlin← H. Carneil

75'

L. Shabani

82'

Y. Kalley← M. Baggesen

83'

A. Guðjohnsen← A. Sigurðsson

83'

M. Sema← V. Lind

86'

K. Peprah Oppong← M. Lund

IFK

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Stahre

46'▲E. Salomonsson←▼S. Ohlsson

70'▲L. Carlstrand←▼S. Abdullahi

71'▲G. Norlin←▼H. Carneil

IFK Goteborg substitutes

SalomonssonCarlstrandNorlinBishesariSelvénErikssonThern

Manager: G. Riddersholm

55'▲L. Shabani←▼V. Hammershøy-Mistrati

82'▲Y. Kalley←▼M. Baggesen

83'▲A. Guðjohnsen←▼A. Sigurðsson

83'▲M. Sema←▼V. Lind

86'▲K. Peprah Oppong←▼M. Lund

IFK Norrkoping substitutes

ShabaniKalleyGuðjohnsenSemaOppongErikssonJakobsson

Match Recap: IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping

IFK Norrkoping beat IFK Goteborg 4-0 in Svenska Cupen on March 5, 2023.

Goals: A. Sigurðsson (37', 65' pen), A. Traustason (45+1'), L. Shabani (75').

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.

IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping — Svenska Cupen 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping