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IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm — Allsvenskan 2026

IF Brommapojkarna
IF Brommapojkarna
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
A. Timossi 90'
M. Hansen 62'
V. Andersson 78'
B. Celina 59'
4/13/2026AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 2Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

IF Brommapojkarna34%
×Draw27%
AIK Stockholm39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Brommapojkarna
1.17
AIK Stockholm
1.29

AIK Stockholm creates 10% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

IF Brommapojkarna
1.24
AIK Stockholm
1.05

allows per match

IF Brommapojkarna
1.53
AIK Stockholm
1.09

finishing

IF Brommapojkarna+0.12scores more
AIK Stockholm+0.07on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Brommapojkarna ↓

AIK Stockholm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

IF Brommapojkarna or draw
61%
IF Brommapojkarna or AIK Stockholm
73%
Draw or AIK Stockholm
66%

Winning margin

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+
14%
AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals
69%
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals
33%
IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals
11%
AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
72%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
37%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)
46%
AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Brommapojkarna at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 25 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.09 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.24 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

AIK Stockholm attack 1.05 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

IF Brommapojkarna scores more
34%
level
27%
AIK Stockholm scores more
39%

AIK Stockholm at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. HansenIF BrommapojkarnaIF Brommapojkarna · M
7.9

Match Events

19'
Jordan Simpson
33'
Simon Strand
33'
Abdihakin Ali
46'
S. Oppong← O. Okeke
59'
B. Celina↳ Z. Yohanna
62'
M. Hansen
65'
A. Kouame← A. Ali
65'
K. Filling← T. Ayari
73'
Dino Beširović
74'
V. Andersson← B. Celina
75'
K. Sever← D. Isso
75'
L. Bergquist← C. Pavey
78'
V. Andersson↳ J. Hove
82'
O. Cotton← K. Barslund
85'
S. Papagiannopoulos← Z. Yohanna
88'
Lukas Bergquist
90'
A. Timossi

Possession

44%IF

Shots

12IF

Pass accuracy

49%IF

Statistics

IFAIK
Overview
44%Possession56%
12Total Shots14
1.66Expected Goals (xG)1.30
4Corners9
5Fouls8
Shots
12Total Shots14
4On Target5
3Off Target6
5Blocked3
7Inside Box7
5Outside Box7
Passing
44%Possession56%
396Total Passes501
335Accurate Passes437
85%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
5Fouls8
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Match Recap: IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm

IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm drew 2-2 in Allsvenskan on April 13, 2026.

Goals: B. Celina (59'), M. Hansen (62'), V. Andersson (78'), A. Timossi (90').

AIK Stockholm controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Grimsta IP in Stockholm.