AIK Stockholm 2–1 IF Brommapojkarna: Result & Stats

AIK Stockholm

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

IF Brommapojkarna

A. Salétros 45+4'

I. Pittas 34'

A. Timossi Andersson 10'

8/25/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 20Strawberry Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

AIK Stockholm43%

×Draw25%

IF Brommapojkarna31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK StockholmExpected goals in this matchIF Brommapojkarna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.24

AIK Stockholm

1.50

IF Brommapojkarna

1.24

AIK Stockholm creates 21% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

1.57

creates per match

1.35

1.13

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

AIK Stockholm

1.57

IF Brommapojkarna

1.35

allows per match

AIK Stockholm

1.13

IF Brommapojkarna

1.42

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.15scores more

IF Brommapojkarna+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw

69%

AIK Stockholm or IF Brommapojkarna

75%

Draw or IF Brommapojkarna

57%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

21%

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

78%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

44%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

19%

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

71%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

35%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

58%

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.13 · 25 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.42 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.57 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.35 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more

43%

level

25%

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

31%

AIK Stockholm at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

I. Pittas

AIK Stockholm · F

8.3

Match Events

10'

A. Timossi Andersson↳ W. Odefalk

34'

I. Pittas↳ Rui Modesto

38'

Ioannis Pittas

45+3'

Alexander Abrahamsson

45+4'

A. Salétros

46'

R. Örqvist← W. Odefalk

46'

M. Vetkal← Daleho Irandust

46'

E. Botchway← F. Christensen

46'

H. Karlsson← A. Abrahamsson

61'

Taha Ayari

64'

A. Björnström← T. Ayari

76'

T. Bergvall← E. Botchway

80'

J. Guidetti← I. Pittas

82'

Rasmus Örqvist

89'

Omar Faraj← B. Celina

90+6'

Ismael Diawara

90'

A. Milošević← M. Thychosen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AIKIF

Overview

47%Possession53%

22Total Shots8

1.62Expected Goals (xG)0.71

5Corners4

14Fouls18

Shots

22Total Shots8

9On Target3

8Off Target2

5Blocked3

12Inside Box3

10Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

415Total Passes476

307Accurate Passes373

74%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

14Fouls18

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Allsvenskan: AIK Stockholm 2–1 IF Brommapojkarna

AIK Stockholm beat IF Brommapojkarna 2-1 in Allsvenskan on August 25, 2024.

Goals: A. Timossi Andersson (10'), I. Pittas (34'), A. Salétros (45+4').

IF Brommapojkarna controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 22.

The match was played at Strawberry Arena in Solna.

AIK Stockholm vs IF Brommapojkarna — Allsvenskan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Allsvenskan: AIK Stockholm 2–1 IF Brommapojkarna