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IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm — Allsvenskan 2026

IF Brommapojkarna
IF Brommapojkarna
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
N. Vasić 90+2'
L. Fritzson 31'
A. Ali 70'
Rui Modesto 53'
4/6/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 2Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

IF Brommapojkarna36%
×Draw27%
AIK Stockholm37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Brommapojkarna
1.23
AIK Stockholm
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

creates per match

IF Brommapojkarna
1.24
AIK Stockholm
1.02

allows per match

IF Brommapojkarna
1.53
AIK Stockholm
1.21

finishing

IF Brommapojkarna+0.12scores more
AIK Stockholm+0.06on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Brommapojkarna ↓

AIK Stockholm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

IF Brommapojkarna or draw
63%
IF Brommapojkarna or AIK Stockholm
73%
Draw or AIK Stockholm
64%

Winning margin

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+
15%
AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals
71%
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals
35%
IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals
13%
AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
72%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
36%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)
49%
AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Brommapojkarna at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 25 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.21 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.24 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

AIK Stockholm attack 1.02 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

IF Brommapojkarna scores more
36%
level
27%
AIK Stockholm scores more
37%

AIK Stockholm at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
B. HansenAIK StockholmAIK Stockholm · D
8.2

Match Events

-5'
Filip Sidklev
31'
L. Fritzson↳ Daleho Irandust
45'
Alex Timossi Andersson
53'
Rui Modesto↳ O. Faraj
62'
A. Abrahamsson← Daleho Irandust
69'
A. Ali← T. Ayari
69'
V. Andersson← O. Faraj
70'
A. Ali↳ M. Thychosen
72'
N. Vasić← R. Örqvist
76'
Bersant Celina
85'
P. Pichkah← A. Calisir
85'
E. Björkander← W. Odefalk
90+2'
N. Vasić

Possession

47%IF

Shots

21IF

Pass accuracy

49%IF

Statistics

IFAIK
Overview
47%Possession53%
21Total Shots19
7Corners5
12Fouls8
Shots
21Total Shots19
8On Target7
5Off Target7
8Blocked5
14Inside Box8
7Outside Box11
Passing
47%Possession53%
450Total Passes523
377Accurate Passes460
84%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
5Saves6
Discipline
12Fouls8
2Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm

IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm drew 2-2 in Allsvenskan on April 6, 2024.

Goals: L. Fritzson (31'), Rui Modesto (53'), A. Ali (70'), N. Vasić (90+2').

AIK Stockholm controlled possession (53%) and registered 19 shots to 21.

The match was played at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm.