AIK Stockholm 2–1 IF Brommapojkarna: Result & Stats

AIK Stockholm

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

IF Brommapojkarna

K. Filling 90'

T. Isherwood 35'

E. Alladoh 64'

9/15/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 23Strawberry Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

AIK Stockholm43%

×Draw25%

IF Brommapojkarna31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK StockholmExpected goals in this matchIF Brommapojkarna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.24

AIK Stockholm

1.50

IF Brommapojkarna

1.24

AIK Stockholm creates 21% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

1.57

creates per match

1.35

1.13

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

AIK Stockholm

1.57

IF Brommapojkarna

1.35

allows per match

AIK Stockholm

1.13

IF Brommapojkarna

1.42

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.15scores more

IF Brommapojkarna+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw

69%

AIK Stockholm or IF Brommapojkarna

75%

Draw or IF Brommapojkarna

57%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

21%

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

78%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

44%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

19%

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

71%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

35%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

58%

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.13 · 25 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.42 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.57 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.35 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more

43%

level

25%

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

31%

AIK Stockholm at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

L. Cavallius

IF Brommapojkarna · G

7.6

Match Events

35'

T. Isherwood↳ B. Celina

39'

E. Alladoh← V. Lind

49'

Dino Beširović

53'

Issiaga Camara

61'

A. Csongvai← T. Ayari

63'

R. Orqvist← I. Camara

63'

D. Irandust← O. Cotton

64'

E. Alladoh↳ D. Irandust

72'

A. Ali← D. Besirovic

72'

A. Kouame← A. Saletros

72'

K. Filling← E. Flataker

76'

Axel Kouame

77'

Kaare Barslund

84'

Mads Thychosen

88'

Z. Yohanna←

90+1'

Oliver Zandén

90'

Lukas Björklund

90+5'

E. Bjorkander← L. Arrhov

90'

K. Filling↳ M. Thychosen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AIKIF

Overview

51%Possession49%

15Total Shots3

1.15Expected Goals (xG)0.31

6Corners2

12Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots3

8On Target1

4Off Target1

3Blocked1

8Inside Box2

7Outside Box1

Passing

51%Possession49%

434Total Passes431

362Accurate Passes332

83%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls12

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1