Hull City 1–0 Watford: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Watford

O. Tufan 25' (pen)

4/22/2023

Championship · Round 44The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 51+ matches

Hull City42%

×Draw27%

Watford31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.13

Hull City

1.35

Watford

1.13

Hull City creates 19% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 59 away

1.32

creates per match

1.02

1.24

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Hull City

1.32

Watford

1.02

allows per match

Hull City

1.24

Watford

1.39

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hull City-0.12scores less

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

69%

Hull City or Watford

73%

Draw or Watford

58%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

19%

Watford wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

74%

Hull City 2+ goals

39%

Hull City 3+ goals

15%

Watford 1+ goals

68%

Watford 2+ goals

31%

Watford 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

57%

Watford (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

Watford away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.39 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.32 + Watford defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

Watford attack 1.02 + Hull City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hull City scores more

42%

level

27%

Watford scores more

31%

Hull City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

K. Darlow

Hull City · G

7.5

Match Events

25'

O. TufanPenalty

54'

K. Davis← L. Bacuna

60'

Lewie Coyle

69'

G. Docherty← A. Traoré

69'

M. Ebiowei← A. Sayyadmanesh

72'

74'

77'

77'

79'

79'

86'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullWatford

Overview

44%Possession56%

2Total Shots10

2Corners5

14Fouls10

Shots

2Total Shots10

1On Target2

0Off Target6

1Blocked2

1Inside Box8

1Outside Box2

Passing

44%Possession56%

414Total Passes502

324Accurate Passes416

78%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4