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Hull City vs Watford — Premier League 2026

Hull City
Hull City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Watford
Watford
S. Clucas 71'
L. Marković 62'
4/22/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 34KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Hull City42%
×Draw25%
Watford33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.52
Watford
1.30

Hull City creates 17% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 112 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.26
Watford
0.96

allows per match

Hull City
1.64
Watford
1.79

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
67%
Hull City or Watford
75%
Draw or Watford
58%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
21%
Watford wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
78%
Hull City 2+ goals
45%
Hull City 3+ goals
20%
Watford 1+ goals
73%
Watford 2+ goals
37%
Watford 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
57%
Watford (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.79 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.26 + Watford defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.52

Watford attack 0.96 + Hull City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hull City scores more
42%
level
25%
Watford scores more
33%

Hull City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
S. ClucasHull CityHull City · M
7.6

Match Events

25'
Oumar Niasse
42'
Alfred N'Diaye
46'
A. Hernández← Evandro
62'
L. Marković
66'
Lazar Marković
67'
I. Success← N. Amrabat
68'
Sebastian Prödl
71'
S. Clucas
73'
S. Okaka← A. Doucouré
81'
Andrew Robertson
82'
T. Huddlestone← L. Marković
87'
C. Zúñiga← J. Holebas
90'
M. Dawson← K. Grosicki

Possession

34%Hull

Shots

8Hull

Pass accuracy

45%Hull

Statistics

HullWatford
Overview
34%Possession66%
8Total Shots14
4Corners7
10Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots14
3On Target2
3Off Target6
2Blocked6
3Inside Box7
5Outside Box7
Passing
34%Possession66%
300Total Passes573
206Accurate Passes487
69%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Hull City vs Watford

Hull City beat Watford 2-0 in Premier League on April 22, 2017.

Goals: L. Marković (62'), S. Clucas (71').

Watford controlled possession (66%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at KCOM Stadium in Hull.