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Hull City vs Preston — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Preston
Preston
2/18/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 33The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 52+ matches

Hull City44%
×Draw26%
Preston30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.46
Preston
1.15

Hull City creates 27% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 57 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.32
Preston
1.00

allows per match

Hull City
1.29
Preston
1.60

finishing

Hull City-0.13scores less
Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
70%
Hull City or Preston
74%
Draw or Preston
56%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
22%
Preston wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
77%
Hull City 2+ goals
43%
Hull City 3+ goals
18%
Preston 1+ goals
68%
Preston 2+ goals
32%
Preston 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
60%
Preston (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Preston away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.32 + Preston defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.46

Preston attack 1.00 + Hull City defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hull City scores more
44%
level
26%
Preston scores more
30%

Hull City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
F. WoodmanPrestonPreston · G
7.9

Match Events

33'
Ozan Tufan
36'
L. Lindsay← A. Hughes
46'
Bambo Diaby← J. Storey
46'
T. Parrott← L. Delap
65'
Dimitrios Pelkas
65'
M. Ebiowei← R. Longman
65'
R. Slater← D. Pelkas
74'
D. Johnson← B. Woodburn
76'
Bambo Diaby
76'
B. Tetteh← Ó. Estupiñán
90+2'
Álvaro Fernandez

Possession

52%Hull

Shots

15Hull

Pass accuracy

52%Hull

Statistics

HullPreston
Overview
52%Possession48%
15Total Shots7
11Corners6
10Fouls8
Shots
15Total Shots7
4On Target0
6Off Target5
5Blocked2
10Inside Box3
5Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
409Total Passes392
301Accurate Passes270
74%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls8
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides4

Match Recap: Hull City vs Preston

Hull City and Preston drew 0-0 in Championship on February 18, 2023.

Hull City controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.