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Hull City vs Norwich — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Norwich
Norwich
Ó. Estupiñán 62', 43'
M. Núñez 72'
8/13/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 3The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 54+ matches

Hull City40%
×Draw26%
Norwich33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.39
Norwich
1.24

Hull City creates 12% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 60 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.31
Norwich
1.22

allows per match

Hull City
1.26
Norwich
1.47

finishing

Hull City-0.12scores less
Norwich+0.11scores more

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
67%
Hull City or Norwich
74%
Draw or Norwich
60%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
19%
Norwich wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
75%
Hull City 2+ goals
40%
Hull City 3+ goals
16%
Norwich 1+ goals
71%
Norwich 2+ goals
35%
Norwich 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
55%
Norwich (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 54 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.31 + Norwich defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Norwich attack 1.22 + Hull City defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hull City scores more
40%
level
26%
Norwich scores more
33%

Hull City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. IngramHull CityHull City · G
9.0

Match Events

23'
Andrew Omobamidele
43'
Ó. Estupiñán
57'
L. Gibbs← J. Sørensen
57'
J. Sargent← M. Rashica
62'
Ó. Estupiñán
63'
A. Cannon← B. Tetteh
67'
O. Hernández← K. Dowell
67'
A. Ramsey← T. Cantwell
72'
M. Núñez
77'
V. Covil← Ó. Estupiñán
80'
R. Williams← O. Tufan
90+6'
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh

Possession

31%Hull

Shots

13Hull

Pass accuracy

44%Hull

Statistics

HullNorwich
Overview
31%Possession69%
13Total Shots18
2Corners11
15Fouls6
Shots
13Total Shots18
4On Target12
4Off Target4
5Blocked2
10Inside Box12
3Outside Box6
Passing
31%Possession69%
249Total Passes581
167Accurate Passes503
67%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
10Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls6
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Hull City vs Norwich

Hull City beat Norwich 2-1 in Championship on August 13, 2022.

Goals: Ó. Estupiñán (43', 62'), M. Núñez (72').

Norwich controlled possession (69%) and registered 18 shots to 13.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.