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Hull City vs Norwich — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Norwich
Norwich
11/27/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 19KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 54+ matches

Hull City41%
×Draw26%
Norwich33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.40
Norwich
1.23

Hull City creates 14% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 61 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.31
Norwich
1.20

allows per match

Hull City
1.26
Norwich
1.48

finishing

Hull City-0.12scores less
Norwich+0.13scores more

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
67%
Hull City or Norwich
74%
Draw or Norwich
59%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
19%
Norwich wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
75%
Hull City 2+ goals
41%
Hull City 3+ goals
17%
Norwich 1+ goals
71%
Norwich 2+ goals
35%
Norwich 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
55%
Norwich (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 54 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.31 + Norwich defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.40

Norwich attack 1.20 + Hull City defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hull City scores more
41%
level
26%
Norwich scores more
33%

Hull City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Hull City 0–0 Norwich

Hull City and Norwich drew 0-0 in Championship on November 27, 2018.

The match was played at KCOM Stadium in Hull.