Hull City 1–0 Millwall: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Millwall

2/3/2024

Championship · Round 30The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Hull City37%

×Draw26%

Millwall38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.39

Hull City

1.36

Millwall

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 32 away

1.39

creates per match

1.40

1.38

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Hull City

1.39

Millwall

1.40

allows per match

Hull City

1.38

Millwall

1.34

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Hull City-0.07on par

Millwall-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

62%

Hull City or Millwall

74%

Draw or Millwall

63%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

17%

Millwall wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

74%

Hull City 2+ goals

39%

Hull City 3+ goals

16%

Millwall 1+ goals

75%

Millwall 2+ goals

40%

Millwall 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

49%

Millwall (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.38 · 40 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.39 + Millwall defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Millwall attack 1.40 + Hull City defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hull City scores more

37%

level

26%

Millwall scores more

38%

Millwall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff