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Hull City vs Millwall — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Millwall
Millwall
7/11/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 43KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 54+ matches

Hull City39%
×Draw27%
Millwall34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.31
Millwall
1.19

Hull City creates 10% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 62 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.31
Millwall
1.12

allows per match

Hull City
1.26
Millwall
1.32

finishing

Hull City-0.12scores less
Millwall-0.07on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
66%
Hull City or Millwall
73%
Draw or Millwall
61%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
18%
Millwall wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
73%
Hull City 2+ goals
38%
Hull City 3+ goals
14%
Millwall 1+ goals
70%
Millwall 2+ goals
33%
Millwall 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
54%
Millwall (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 54 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.31 + Millwall defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Millwall attack 1.12 + Hull City defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hull City scores more
39%
level
27%
Millwall scores more
34%

Hull City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Hull City 0–1 Millwall

Millwall beat Hull City 1-0 in Championship on July 11, 2020.

The match was played at KCOM Stadium in Hull.