Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Huesca vs Granada CF — Segunda División 2018

Huesca
Huesca
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Granada CF
Granada CF
P. Aleman 24'
9/28/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 7Estadio El Alcoraz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Huesca43%
×Draw28%
Granada CF29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huesca
1.27
Granada CF
1.00

Huesca creates 27% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 84 away

creates per match

Huesca
1.29
Granada CF
1.08

allows per match

Huesca
0.91
Granada CF
1.24

finishing

Huesca+0.00on par
Granada CF+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca ↓

Granada CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Huesca or draw
71%
Huesca or Granada CF
72%
Draw or Granada CF
57%

Winning margin

Huesca wins by 2+
19%
Granada CF wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Huesca 1+ goals
72%
Huesca 2+ goals
36%
Huesca 3+ goals
14%
Granada CF 1+ goals
63%
Granada CF 2+ goals
26%
Granada CF 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Huesca (draw refunded)
59%
Granada CF (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.91 · 129 matches

Granada CF away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.24 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca attack 1.29 + Granada CF defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Granada CF attack 1.08 + Huesca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Huesca scores more
43%
level
28%
Granada CF scores more
29%

Huesca at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Huesca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
L. ZidaneGranada CFGranada CF · G
8.9

Match Events

24'
P. Aleman↳ S. Faye
52'
J. Alvarez← F. Portillo
53'
L. Beltran← S. Arribas
62'
D. Hormigo← B. Diallo
67'
D. Ojeda← D. Luna
70'
M. Hongla← S. Ruiz
70'
M. Bouldini← J. Pascual
70'
P. Saenz← A. Sola
76'
Rubén Alcaraz
77'
S. Ntamack← S. Enrich
77'
E. Rodriguez← O. Sielva
84'
L. Williams← S. Faye
90+5'
Iñigo Sebastián Magana

Possession

61%Huesca

Shots

15Huesca

Pass accuracy

52%Huesca

Statistics

HuescaGranada
Overview
61%Possession39%
15Total Shots9
13Corners2
12Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots9
2On Target3
5Off Target3
8Blocked3
8Inside Box5
7Outside Box4
Passing
61%Possession39%
459Total Passes309
382Accurate Passes240
83%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
6Offsides3

Segunda División: Huesca 0–1 Granada CF

Granada CF beat Huesca 1-0 in Segunda División on September 28, 2025.

Goals: P. Aleman (24').

Huesca controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio El Alcoraz in Huesca.