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Granada CF vs Huesca — Segunda División 2018

Granada CF
Granada CF
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Huesca
Huesca
J. Pascual 64'
J. M. Arnaiz 31'
P. Saenz 29', 26'
L. Beltran 73'
S. Enrich 38'
3/28/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 32Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Granada CF50%
×Draw27%
Huesca23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granada CF
1.40
Huesca
0.85

Granada CF creates 65% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 130 away

creates per match

Granada CF
1.56
Huesca
0.94

allows per match

Granada CF
0.76
Huesca
1.24

finishing

Granada CF+0.00on par
Huesca+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Huesca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw
77%
Granada CF or Huesca
73%
Draw or Huesca
50%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+
24%
Huesca wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals
75%
Granada CF 2+ goals
41%
Granada CF 3+ goals
17%
Huesca 1+ goals
57%
Huesca 2+ goals
21%
Huesca 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)
69%
Huesca (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.76 · 84 matches

Huesca away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.24 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.56 + Huesca defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Huesca attack 0.94 + Granada CF defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Granada CF scores more
50%
level
27%
Huesca scores more
23%

Granada CF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
P. SaenzGranada CFGranada CF · F
9.2

Match Events

21'
Oscar Naasei
23'
Jorge Pulido
26'
P. Saenz↳ M. Trigueros
29'
P. Saenz↳ J. M. Arnaiz
31'
J. M. Arnaiz↳ P. Aleman
38'
S. Enrich↳ J. Pulido
42'
Manu Trigueros
46'
R. Alcaraz← M. Trigueros
46'
A. Lemos← O. Naasei
57'
Sergi Enrich
57'
J. Pascual← G. Petit
60'
L. Beltran← I. Laquintana
60'
E. Rodriguez← S. Enrich
64'
J. Pascual↳ P. Saenz
70'
A. Sola← J. M. Arnaiz
73'
L. Beltran↳ F. Portillo
80'
A. Cantero← J. Seoane
81'
B. Diocou← P. Saenz
86'
R. Abajas← J. Martin
86'
D. Luna← D. Ojeda
89'
Daniel Luna
90'
Rodrigo Abajas

Possession

52%Granada

Shots

7Granada

Pass accuracy

52%Granada

Statistics

GranadaHuesca
Overview
52%Possession48%
7Total Shots14
1.54Expected Goals (xG)0.99
2Corners6
11Fouls15
Shots
7Total Shots14
4On Target3
1Off Target8
2Blocked3
5Inside Box11
2Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
416Total Passes369
341Accurate Passes285
82%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
11Fouls15
2Yellow Cards4
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Granada CF vs Huesca

Granada CF beat Huesca 4-2 in Segunda División on March 28, 2026.

Goals: P. Saenz (26', 29'), J. M. Arnaiz (31'), S. Enrich (38'), J. Pascual (64'), L. Beltran (73').

Granada CF controlled possession (52%) and registered 7 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in Granada.