Granada CF 1–3 Huesca: Result & Stats

Granada CF

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Huesca

M. Hongla 59'

Javi Mier 90+8'

Rubén Pulido 57'

Joaquín Muñoz 21'

8/30/2024

Segunda División · Round 3Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Granada CF50%

×Draw27%

Huesca23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granada CFExpected goals in this matchHuesca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.85

Granada CF

1.40

Huesca

0.85

Granada CF creates 65% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 130 away

1.56

creates per match

0.94

0.76

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Granada CF

1.56

Huesca

0.94

allows per match

Granada CF

0.76

Huesca

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granada CF+0.00on par

Huesca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Huesca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw

77%

Granada CF or Huesca

73%

Draw or Huesca

50%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+

24%

Huesca wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals

75%

Granada CF 2+ goals

41%

Granada CF 3+ goals

17%

Huesca 1+ goals

57%

Huesca 2+ goals

21%

Huesca 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)

69%

Huesca (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.76 · 84 matches

Huesca away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.24 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.56 + Huesca defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Huesca attack 0.94 + Granada CF defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Granada CF scores more

50%

level

27%

Huesca scores more

23%

Granada CF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Rubén Pulido

Huesca · D

8.2

Match Events

21'

Carlos Neva

21'

Joaquín Muñoz

28'

Toni Abad

46'

S. Weissman← Gonzalo Villar

57'

Rubén Pulido

59'

M. Hongla↳ S. Weissman

63'

Gerard Valentín← Toni Abad

63'

Hugo Vallejo← P. Soko

65'

Loïc Williams← Pablo Insua

65'

Pablo Sáenz← L. Boyé

72'

Sergio Ruiz← Manu Trigueros

72'

Rubén Sánchez← G. Tsitaishvili

77'

Oscar Sielva

82'

Jordi Martín← Sergi Enrich

84'

Jordi Martín

85'

Iker Kortajarena← Joaquín Muñoz

85'

Javi Mier← Javi Pérez

90+8'

Javi Mier↳ Iker Kortajarena

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GranadaHuesca

Overview

65%Possession35%

14Total Shots13

5Corners4

8Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots13

5On Target5

6Off Target7

3Blocked1

7Inside Box10

7Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

573Total Passes312

488Accurate Passes219

85%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1