Huesca 1–1 Granada CF: Result & Stats

Huesca

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Granada CF

Joaquín Muñoz 43'

Carlos Neva 45+2'

2/19/2023

Segunda División · Round 28Estadio El Alcoraz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Huesca43%

×Draw28%

Granada CF29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuescaExpected goals in this matchGranada CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.00

Huesca

1.27

Granada CF

1.00

Huesca creates 27% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 84 away

1.29

creates per match

1.08

0.91

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Huesca

1.29

Granada CF

1.08

allows per match

Huesca

0.91

Granada CF

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huesca+0.00on par

Granada CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca ↓

Granada CF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Huesca or draw

71%

Huesca or Granada CF

72%

Draw or Granada CF

57%

Winning margin

Huesca wins by 2+

19%

Granada CF wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Huesca 1+ goals

72%

Huesca 2+ goals

36%

Huesca 3+ goals

14%

Granada CF 1+ goals

63%

Granada CF 2+ goals

26%

Granada CF 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Huesca (draw refunded)

59%

Granada CF (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.91 · 129 matches

Granada CF away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.24 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca attack 1.29 + Granada CF defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Granada CF attack 1.08 + Huesca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Huesca scores more

43%

level

28%

Granada CF scores more

29%

Huesca at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Huesca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Carlos Neva

Granada CF · D

7.5

Match Events

-5'

Miguel Rubio

24'

Pol Lozano

28'

K. Hashimoto← Cristian Salvador

42'

Víctor Díaz← Miguel Rubio

43'

Joaquín Muñoz↳ Gerard Valentín

45+2'

Carlos Neva↳ José Callejón

48'

Jérémy Blasco

58'

Óscar Melendo

60'

Gerard ValentínPenalty cancelled

66'

Jorge Molina← José Callejón

66'

Víctor Meseguer← Y. Bodiger

66'

Bryan Zaragoza← Óscar Melendo

69'

Shon WeissmanGoal cancelled

80'

Oscar Sielva

80'

Marc Mateu← Juan Carlos Real

80'

A. Kanté← S. Obeng

89'

David Timor← Óscar Sielva

89'

Antonio Puertas← S. Weissman

90+7'

Florian Miguel

90'

Juanjo Nieto← Gerard Valentín

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuescaGranada

Overview

36%Possession64%

7Total Shots8

4Corners4

13Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots8

4On Target2

2Off Target2

1Blocked4

3Inside Box4

4Outside Box4

Passing

36%Possession64%

250Total Passes449

144Accurate Passes332

58%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

5Offsides4