Huddersfield 3–3 Wycombe: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Wycombe

M. Harness 90', 75'

R. Ledson 48'

N. Lowe 90', 35'

C. Taylor 90'

4/11/2026

League One · Round 43John Smit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Huddersfield51%

×Draw22%

Wycombe27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.37

Huddersfield

1.95

Wycombe

1.37

Huddersfield creates 42% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

2.02

creates per match

1.77

0.97

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Huddersfield

2.02

Wycombe

1.77

allows per match

Huddersfield

0.97

Wycombe

1.88

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.57scores less than expected

finishing

Huddersfield+0.13scores more

Wycombe-0.57scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

73%

Huddersfield or Wycombe

78%

Draw or Wycombe

49%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

29%

Wycombe wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

86%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

58%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

31%

Wycombe 1+ goals

75%

Wycombe 2+ goals

40%

Wycombe 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

65%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.97 · 13 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.88 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 2.02 + Wycombe defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.95

Wycombe attack 1.77 + Huddersfield defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Huddersfield scores more

51%

level

22%

Wycombe scores more

27%

Huddersfield at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Harness

Huddersfield · F

9.2

Match Events

35'

N. Lowe↳ A. Morley

36'

Taylor Allen

41'

Will Norris

48'

R. Ledson↳ A. May

61'

J. Scowen← N. Huggins

63'

J. Alnwick← L. Nicholls

68'

L. Harris← F. Onyedinma

69'

M. McGuane← C. Humphreys

73'

L. Sorensen← L. Gooch

75'

M. Harness

80'

D. Kasumu← R. Ledson

80'

D. Charles← A. May

80'

E. Henderson← A. Morley

81'

B. Fink← C. Woodrow

81'

A. Quitirna← A. Vidigal

90'

C. Taylor↳ L. Leahy

90'

M. Harness

90'

N. Lowe↳ B. Fink

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldWycombe

Overview

45%Possession55%

22Total Shots8

2.90Expected Goals (xG)1.23

10Corners5

12Fouls14

Shots

22Total Shots8

6On Target4

8Off Target3

8Blocked1

15Inside Box8

7Outside Box0

Passing

45%Possession55%

318Total Passes408

238Accurate Passes294

75%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2