Huddersfield 2–0 Derby: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Derby

J. Rhodes 79'

D. Holmes 75'

2/2/2022

Championship · Round 30John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Huddersfield36%

×Draw27%

Derby37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.23

Huddersfield

1.21

Derby

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 45 away

1.10

creates per match

1.01

1.45

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.10

Derby

1.01

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.45

Derby

1.32

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Huddersfield-0.03on par

Derby+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

63%

Huddersfield or Derby

73%

Draw or Derby

64%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

15%

Derby wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

70%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

34%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

12%

Derby 1+ goals

71%

Derby 2+ goals

35%

Derby 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

49%

Derby (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.45 · 14 matches

Derby away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.32 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.10 + Derby defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.21

Derby attack 1.01 + Huddersfield defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Huddersfield scores more

36%

level

27%

Derby scores more

37%

Derby at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

L. O'Brien

Huddersfield · M

7.9

Match Events

3'

Richard Stearman

46'

C. Eiting← M. Pearson

46'

K. Bielik← L. Plange

56'

Pipa Ávila← O. Turton

61'

62'

72'

73'

75'

79'

80'

J. Stretton← L. Thompson

90+3'

Lewis O'Brien

90+4'

Nathan Byrne

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldDerby

Overview

72%Possession28%

16Total Shots1

4Corners3

11Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots1

6On Target0

6Off Target1

4Blocked0

8Inside Box1

8Outside Box0

Passing

72%Possession28%

624Total Passes252

531Accurate Passes158

85%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0