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Derby vs Huddersfield — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Huddersfield
Huddersfield
C. Davies 39'
N. Sarr 45'
8/7/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 1Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Derby44%
×Draw27%
Huddersfield29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.35
Huddersfield
1.04

Derby creates 30% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 10 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
Huddersfield
1.08

allows per match

Derby
1.01
Huddersfield
1.49

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Huddersfield+0.12scores more

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Huddersfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Derby or draw
71%
Derby or Huddersfield
73%
Draw or Huddersfield
56%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
20%
Huddersfield wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
74%
Derby 2+ goals
39%
Derby 3+ goals
15%
Huddersfield 1+ goals
65%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
28%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
60%
Huddersfield (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.49 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Huddersfield defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.35

Huddersfield attack 1.08 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Derby scores more
44%
level
27%
Huddersfield scores more
29%

Derby at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
S. ThomasHuddersfieldHuddersfield · M
8.3

Match Events

14'
Oliver Turton
25'
Nathan Byrne
39'
C. Davies
45'
N. Sarr↳ S. Thomas
50'
Louie Watson
52'
L. Sibley← L. Watson
64'
J. Koroma← D. Ward
64'
F. Campbell← J. Rhodes
68'
F. Ebosele← K. Jóźwiak
80'
Louie Sibley
88'
Duane Holmes
90'
I. Hutchinson← T. Lawrence
90+2'
D. Sinani← D. Holmes

Possession

50%Derby

Shots

11Derby

Pass accuracy

49%Derby

Statistics

DerbyHuddersfield
Overview
50%Possession50%
11Total Shots17
4Corners6
17Fouls15
Shots
11Total Shots17
3On Target6
3Off Target7
5Blocked4
5Inside Box13
6Outside Box4
Passing
50%Possession50%
361Total Passes354
270Accurate Passes271
75%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls15
3Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Championship: Derby 1–1 Huddersfield

Derby and Huddersfield drew 1-1 in Championship on August 7, 2021.

Goals: C. Davies (39'), N. Sarr (45').

Derby controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 17.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.