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Huddersfield vs Derby — Championship 2018

Huddersfield
Huddersfield
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Derby
Derby
J. Bacuna 53'
10/20/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 6John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Huddersfield36%
×Draw27%
Derby37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huddersfield
1.21
Derby
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 45 away

creates per match

Huddersfield
1.10
Derby
1.01

allows per match

Huddersfield
1.45
Derby
1.32

finishing

Huddersfield-0.03on par
Derby+0.28scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw
63%
Huddersfield or Derby
73%
Draw or Derby
64%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+
15%
Derby wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals
70%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
34%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
12%
Derby 1+ goals
71%
Derby 2+ goals
35%
Derby 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)
49%
Derby (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.45 · 14 matches

Derby away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.32 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.10 + Derby defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.21

Derby attack 1.01 + Huddersfield defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Huddersfield scores more
36%
level
27%
Derby scores more
37%

Derby at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
H. ToffoloHuddersfieldHuddersfield · D
8.3

Match Events

53'
J. Bacuna↳ H. Toffolo
55'
C. Schindler← I. Mbenza
63'
D. Holmes← T. Lawrence
63'
M. Waghorn← G. Shinnie
65'
L. O'Brien← C. Eiting
79'
D. Duhaney← Pipa Ávila
79'
C. Kazim-Richards← L. Buchanan
84'
Nathan Byrne
87'
Fraizer Campbell
90'
Martyn Waghorn
90'
Andre Wisdom

Possession

53%Huddersfield

Shots

20Huddersfield

Pass accuracy

51%Huddersfield

Statistics

HuddersfieldDerby
Overview
53%Possession47%
20Total Shots12
6Corners5
15Fouls11
Shots
20Total Shots12
3On Target2
11Off Target5
6Blocked5
15Inside Box8
5Outside Box4
Passing
53%Possession47%
411Total Passes347
325Accurate Passes260
79%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls11
1Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Huddersfield vs Derby

Huddersfield beat Derby 1-0 in Championship on October 20, 2020.

Goals: J. Bacuna (53').

Huddersfield controlled possession (53%) and registered 20 shots to 12.

The match was played at John Smith's Stadium in Huddersfield, West Yorkshire.