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Derby vs Huddersfield — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Huddersfield
Huddersfield
T. Lawrence 61'
H. Toffolo 81'
2/15/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 33Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Derby45%
×Draw28%
Huddersfield27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.35
Huddersfield
0.98

Derby creates 38% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 12 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
Huddersfield
0.96

allows per match

Derby
1.01
Huddersfield
1.49

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Huddersfield+0.12scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Huddersfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Derby or draw
73%
Derby or Huddersfield
72%
Draw or Huddersfield
55%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
21%
Huddersfield wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
74%
Derby 2+ goals
39%
Derby 3+ goals
15%
Huddersfield 1+ goals
62%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
26%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
62%
Huddersfield (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Huddersfield defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.35

Huddersfield attack 0.96 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Derby scores more
45%
level
28%
Huddersfield scores more
27%

Derby at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

49
J. LösslHuddersfieldHuddersfield · G
7.7

Match Events

29'
G. Shinnie← D. Holmes
38'
Graeme Shinnie
45'
Chris Martin
61'
T. Lawrence↳ G. Shinnie
62'
J. Marriott← C. Martin
75'
E. Smith Rowe← A. King
75'
S. Mounié← F. Campbell
79'
J. Bogle← A. Wisdom
81'
C. Willock← D. Simpson
81'
H. Toffolo
90'
Curtis Davies

Possession

56%Derby

Shots

10Derby

Pass accuracy

52%Derby

Statistics

DerbyHuddersfield
Overview
56%Possession44%
10Total Shots10
4Corners5
10Fouls8
Shots
10Total Shots10
7On Target3
2Off Target6
1Blocked1
3Inside Box5
7Outside Box5
Passing
56%Possession44%
511Total Passes376
418Accurate Passes289
82%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls8
3Yellow Cards0
3Offsides0

Championship: Derby 1–1 Huddersfield

Derby and Huddersfield drew 1-1 in Championship on February 15, 2020.

Goals: T. Lawrence (61'), H. Toffolo (81').

Derby controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.