Holstein Kiel 2–3 Arminia Bielefeld: Result & Stats

Holstein Kiel

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Arminia Bielefeld

H. Friðjónsson 67'

S. Skrzybski 32'

M. Okugawa 55'

R. Hack 29'

F. Jäkel 11'

4/2/2023

2. Bundesliga · Round 26Holstein-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Holstein Kiel47%

×Draw25%

Arminia Bielefeld27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holstein KielExpected goals in this matchArminia Bielefeld

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.11

Holstein Kiel

1.55

Arminia Bielefeld

1.11

Holstein Kiel creates 40% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.32

creates per match

1.06

1.16

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Holstein Kiel

1.32

Arminia Bielefeld

1.06

allows per match

Holstein Kiel

1.16

Arminia Bielefeld

1.78

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Holstein Kiel-0.14scores less

Arminia Bielefeld+0.02on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel ↓

Arminia Bielefeld →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel or draw

73%

Holstein Kiel or Arminia Bielefeld

75%

Draw or Arminia Bielefeld

53%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+

24%

Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals

79%

Holstein Kiel 2+ goals

46%

Holstein Kiel 3+ goals

20%

Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals

67%

Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals

30%

Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)

64%

Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.16 · 11 matches

Arminia Bielefeld away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.78 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel attack 1.32 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.55

Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.06 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Holstein Kiel scores more

47%

level

25%

Arminia Bielefeld scores more

27%

Holstein Kiel at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Okugawa

Arminia Bielefeld · F

8.2

Match Events

11'

F. Jäkel

29'

R. Hack↳ M. Okugawa

32'

S. Skrzybski↳ L. Holtby

34'

Martin Fraisl

46'

B. Pichler← A. Mühling

50'

Patrick Erras

55'

M. Okugawa↳ L. Klünter

56'

K. Okyere Wriedt← B. Pichler

66'

H. Friðjónsson← M. Komenda

67'

H. Friðjónsson↳ F. Reese

70'

Guilherme Ramos

73'

J. Serra← F. Klos

74'

T. Corbeanu← R. Hack

78'

Simon Lorenz

79'

M. Schulz← L. Holtby

86'

I. Lepinjica← J. Consbruch

89'

Hólmbert Aron Friðjónsson

90+2'

O. Hüsing← M. Rzatkowski

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HolsteinArminia

Overview

62%Possession38%

20Total Shots17

4Corners8

12Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots17

5On Target8

9Off Target6

6Blocked3

12Inside Box14

8Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

489Total Passes290

384Accurate Passes207

79%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1