Arminia Bielefeld 4–2 Holstein Kiel: Result & Stats

Arminia Bielefeld

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Holstein Kiel

B. Lasme 85'

M. Okugawa 48'

J. Serra 36'

R. Hack 1'

F. Bartels 68'

A. Mühling 59'

9/17/2022

2. Bundesliga · Round 9SchücoArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld63%

×Draw20%

Holstein Kiel17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arminia BielefeldExpected goals in this matchHolstein Kiel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.02

Arminia Bielefeld

2.13

Holstein Kiel

1.02

Arminia Bielefeld creates 109% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

2.14

creates per match

1.20

0.85

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld

2.14

Holstein Kiel

1.20

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld

0.85

Holstein Kiel

2.13

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld+0.13scores more

Holstein Kiel+0.22scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld ↓

Holstein Kiel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld or draw

83%

Arminia Bielefeld or Holstein Kiel

80%

Draw or Holstein Kiel

37%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+

39%

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals

88%

Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals

63%

Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals

35%

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals

64%

Holstein Kiel 2+ goals

27%

Holstein Kiel 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)

78%

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.85 · 11 matches

Holstein Kiel away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.13 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld attack 2.14 + Holstein Kiel defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.13

Holstein Kiel attack 1.20 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Arminia Bielefeld scores more

63%

level

20%

Holstein Kiel scores more

17%

Arminia Bielefeld at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

R. Hack

Arminia Bielefeld · M

8.2

Match Events

1'

R. Hack

3'

Robin HackGoal confirmed

36'

J. Serra↳ R. Hack

42'

Marc Rzatkowski

46'

B. Lasme← J. Serra

46'

J. Korb← T. Becker

46'

K. Okyere Wriedt← J. Arp

46'

F. Porath← M. Schulz

48'

M. Okugawa↳ B. Lasme

57'

Philipp Sander

59'

A. Mühling↳ K. Okyere Wriedt

60'

Ivan Lepinjica

63'

F. Jäkel← M. Rzatkowski

63'

M. Prietl← S. Vasiliadis

68'

F. Bartels↳ P. Erras

70'

S. Sidler← L. Klünter

78'

S. Skrzybski← A. Mühling

84'

B. Kanurić← M. Okugawa

84'

M. Obuz← M. Kirkeskov

85'

B. Lasme↳ R. Hack

86'

Hauke Wahl

88'

Martin Fraisl

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArminiaHolstein

Overview

31%Possession69%

11Total Shots31

3Corners6

10Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots31

7On Target9

3Off Target18

1Blocked4

6Inside Box24

5Outside Box7

Passing

31%Possession69%

266Total Passes588

179Accurate Passes503

67%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2