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Arminia Bielefeld vs Holstein Kiel — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia Bielefeld
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
N. Sarenren Bazee 87'
J. Grodowski 70' (pen)
I. Nekic 45'
L. Schneider 33' (OG)
1/23/20262. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 19SchücoArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld63%
×Draw20%
Holstein Kiel17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arminia Bielefeld
2.13
Holstein Kiel
1.02

Arminia Bielefeld creates 109% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld
2.14
Holstein Kiel
1.20

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld
0.85
Holstein Kiel
2.13

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld+0.13scores more
Holstein Kiel+0.22scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld ↓

Holstein Kiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld or draw
83%
Arminia Bielefeld or Holstein Kiel
80%
Draw or Holstein Kiel
37%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+
39%
Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals
88%
Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals
63%
Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals
35%
Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
64%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
27%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)
78%
Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.85 · 11 matches

Holstein Kiel away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.13 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld attack 2.14 + Holstein Kiel defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.13

Holstein Kiel attack 1.20 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Arminia Bielefeld scores more
63%
level
20%
Holstein Kiel scores more
17%

Arminia Bielefeld at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
S. RussoArminia BielefeldArminia Bielefeld · M
7.9

Match Events

17'
Ivan Nekić
17'
M. Grosser← J. Felix
33'
L. SchneiderOwn goal
45'
I. Nekic↳ N. Niehoff
46'
C. Lannert← L. Schneider
56'
Marko Ivezić
58'
K. Davidsen← U. Tohumcu
64'
M. Worl← J. Rochelt
64'
R. Uldrikis← S. Telalovic
66'
A. Kapralik← S. Skrzybski
67'
Ivan Nekić
67'
Ivan Nekić
67'
M. Komenda← M. Ivezic
70'
J. GrodowskiPenalty
74'
L. Rosenboom← J. Therkelsen
74'
S. Schwab← P. Harres
77'
Joel Grodowski
86'
N. Sarenren Bazee← J. Grodowski
87'
N. Sarenren Bazee↳ R. Uldrikis

Possession

62%Arminia

Shots

14Arminia

Pass accuracy

53%Arminia

Statistics

ArminiaHolstein
Overview
62%Possession38%
14Total Shots8
1.43Expected Goals (xG)0.98
5Corners6
10Fouls16
Shots
14Total Shots8
5On Target1
2Off Target4
7Blocked3
7Inside Box5
7Outside Box3
Passing
62%Possession38%
509Total Passes321
416Accurate Passes236
82%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls16
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Arminia Bielefeld vs Holstein Kiel

Arminia Bielefeld and Holstein Kiel drew 2-2 in 2. Bundesliga on January 23, 2026.

Goals: L. Schneider (33' o.g.), I. Nekic (45'), J. Grodowski (70' pen), N. Sarenren Bazee (87').

Arminia Bielefeld controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at SchücoArena in Bielefeld.