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Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
CANC
00:00
Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia Bielefeld
1/14/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Oliva Nova Golf & Beach Resort Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Holstein Kiel18%
×Draw18%
Arminia Bielefeld64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holstein Kiel
1.31
Arminia Bielefeld
2.56

Arminia Bielefeld creates 95% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Holstein Kiel
1.50
Arminia Bielefeld
3.88

allows per match

Holstein Kiel
1.25
Arminia Bielefeld
1.13

finishing

Holstein Kiel+0.00on par
Arminia Bielefeld+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel ↓

Arminia Bielefeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel or draw
36%
Holstein Kiel or Arminia Bielefeld
82%
Draw or Arminia Bielefeld
82%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
7%
Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
73%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
38%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
14%
Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals
92%
Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals
72%
Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
22%
Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Arminia Bielefeld away — creates 3.88, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel attack 1.50 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Arminia Bielefeld attack 3.88 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Holstein Kiel scores more
18%
level
18%
Arminia Bielefeld scores more
64%

Arminia Bielefeld at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Holstein Kiel face Arminia Bielefeld (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Holstein Kiel hosting Arminia Bielefeld. Match starts January 14, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Holstein Kiel host Arminia Bielefeld at Oliva Nova Golf & Beach Resort Campo 1.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.