Hertha BSC 0–1 1. FC Köln: Result & Stats

Hertha BSC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

1. FC Köln

T. Lemperle 31'

11/2/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 11Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Hertha BSC37%

×Draw27%

1. FC Köln37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BSCExpected goals in this match1. FC Köln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

Hertha BSC

1.29

1. FC Köln

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 32 away

1.51

creates per match

1.41

1.18

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Hertha BSC

1.51

1. FC Köln

1.41

allows per match

Hertha BSC

1.18

1. FC Köln

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha BSC+0.00on par

1. FC Köln+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC ↓

1. FC Köln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hertha BSC or draw

63%

Hertha BSC or 1. FC Köln

73%

Draw or 1. FC Köln

63%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC wins by 2+

16%

1. FC Köln wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hertha BSC 1+ goals

72%

Hertha BSC 2+ goals

37%

Hertha BSC 3+ goals

14%

1. FC Köln 1+ goals

72%

1. FC Köln 2+ goals

37%

1. FC Köln 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC (draw refunded)

50%

1. FC Köln (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.18 · 55 matches

1. FC Köln away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC attack 1.51 + 1. FC Köln defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

1. FC Köln attack 1.41 + Hertha BSC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hertha BSC scores more

37%

level

27%

1. FC Köln scores more

37%

Hertha BSC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hertha BSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Schwäbe

1. FC Köln · G

7.7

Match Events

31'

T. Lemperle↳ D. Heintz

40'

Toni Leistner

46'

J. Þorsteinsson← K. Sessa

52'

P. Klemens← T. Leistner

58'

Márton Dárdai

62'

Michał Karbownik

67'

B. Lum← M. Karbownik

67'

S. Prevljak← F. Niederlechner

68'

D. Downs← T. Lemperle

72'

Julian Pauli

73'

L. Waldschmidt← D. Ljubičić

76'

80'

80'

89'

90+4'

Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Hertha1.

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots11

6Corners3

10Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots11

4On Target2

4Off Target5

2Blocked4

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

430Total Passes489

348Accurate Passes407

81%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls16

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2