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1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC — DFB Pokal 2018

1. FC Köln
1. FC Kölnadvanced
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hertha BSC
Hertha BSC
12/4/2024DFB PokalDFB Pokal · Round of 16RheinEnergieSTADION

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

1. FC Köln24%
×Draw21%
Hertha BSC55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Köln
1.33
Hertha BSC
2.12

Hertha BSC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

1. FC Köln
1.67
Hertha BSC
2.90

allows per match

1. FC Köln
1.33
Hertha BSC
1.00

finishing

1. FC Köln+0.00on par
Hertha BSC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Köln ↓

Hertha BSC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

1. FC Köln or draw
45%
1. FC Köln or Hertha BSC
79%
Draw or Hertha BSC
76%

Winning margin

1. FC Köln wins by 2+
10%
Hertha BSC wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

1. FC Köln 1+ goals
74%
1. FC Köln 2+ goals
38%
1. FC Köln 3+ goals
15%
Hertha BSC 1+ goals
88%
Hertha BSC 2+ goals
62%
Hertha BSC 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

1. FC Köln (draw refunded)
30%
Hertha BSC (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Köln at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Hertha BSC away — creates 2.90, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Köln attack 1.67 + Hertha BSC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Hertha BSC attack 2.90 + 1. FC Köln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

1. FC Köln scores more
24%
level
21%
Hertha BSC scores more
55%

Hertha BSC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hertha BSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC

1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC drew 1-1 in DFB Pokal on December 4, 2024.

The match was played at RheinEnergieSTADION in Köln.