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1. FC Köln vs Hertha Berlin — Bundesliga 2026

1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin
5/12/2023BundesligaBundesliga · Round 32RheinEnergieStadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

1. FC Köln45%
×Draw24%
Hertha Berlin31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Köln
1.68
Hertha Berlin
1.35

1. FC Köln creates 24% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 79 away

creates per match

1. FC Köln
1.47
Hertha Berlin
1.19

allows per match

1. FC Köln
1.51
Hertha Berlin
1.89

finishing

1. FC Köln+0.00on par
Hertha Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Köln ↓

Hertha Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

1. FC Köln or draw
69%
1. FC Köln or Hertha Berlin
76%
Draw or Hertha Berlin
55%

Winning margin

1. FC Köln wins by 2+
24%
Hertha Berlin wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

1. FC Köln 1+ goals
81%
1. FC Köln 2+ goals
50%
1. FC Köln 3+ goals
24%
Hertha Berlin 1+ goals
74%
Hertha Berlin 2+ goals
39%
Hertha Berlin 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

1. FC Köln (draw refunded)
59%
Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Köln at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.51 · 99 matches

Hertha Berlin away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Köln attack 1.47 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.68

Hertha Berlin attack 1.19 + 1. FC Köln defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

1. FC Köln scores more
45%
level
24%
Hertha Berlin scores more
31%

1. FC Köln at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "1. FC Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1. FC Köln vs Hertha Berlin

1. FC Köln beat Hertha Berlin 5-2 in Bundesliga on May 12, 2023.

The match was played at RheinEnergieStadion in Köln.