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1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC — 2. Bundesliga 2018

1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hertha BSC
Hertha BSC
4/5/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 28RheinEnergieSTADION

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

1. FC Köln46%
×Draw23%
Hertha BSC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Köln
1.86
Hertha BSC
1.49

1. FC Köln creates 25% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 55 away

creates per match

1. FC Köln
2.00
Hertha BSC
1.76

allows per match

1. FC Köln
1.22
Hertha BSC
1.73

finishing

1. FC Köln+0.00on par
Hertha BSC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Köln ↓

Hertha BSC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

1. FC Köln or draw
69%
1. FC Köln or Hertha BSC
77%
Draw or Hertha BSC
54%

Winning margin

1. FC Köln wins by 2+
25%
Hertha BSC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

1. FC Köln 1+ goals
84%
1. FC Köln 2+ goals
55%
1. FC Köln 3+ goals
28%
Hertha BSC 1+ goals
77%
Hertha BSC 2+ goals
44%
Hertha BSC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

1. FC Köln (draw refunded)
60%
Hertha BSC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Köln at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

Hertha BSC away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.73 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Köln attack 2.00 + Hertha BSC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.86

Hertha BSC attack 1.76 + 1. FC Köln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

1. FC Köln scores more
46%
level
23%
Hertha BSC scores more
31%

1. FC Köln at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "1. FC Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: 1. FC Köln 0–1 Hertha BSC

Hertha BSC beat 1. FC Köln 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at RheinEnergieSTADION in Köln.