Hebar 1918 3–1 Etar Veliko Tarnovo: Result & Stats

Hebar 1918

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

A. Kabov 85'

Cheikh Diamanka 66'

João Cesco 48'

M. Morán 45+3'

5/25/2024

First League · Relegation Round - 5Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Hebar 191841%

×Draw27%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hebar 1918Expected goals in this matchEtar Veliko Tarnovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.10

Hebar 1918

1.31

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.10

Hebar 1918 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 66 away

0.83

creates per match

0.80

1.40

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Hebar 1918

0.83

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

0.80

allows per match

Hebar 1918

1.40

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar 1918 ↓

Etar Veliko Tarnovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hebar 1918 or draw

69%

Hebar 1918 or Etar Veliko Tarnovo

73%

Draw or Etar Veliko Tarnovo

59%

Winning margin

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+

19%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hebar 1918 1+ goals

73%

Hebar 1918 2+ goals

38%

Hebar 1918 3+ goals

14%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals

67%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals

30%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)

57%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar 1918 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.40 · 53 matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.79 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar 1918 attack 0.83 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.31

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 0.80 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hebar 1918 scores more

41%

level

27%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more

31%

Hebar 1918 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hebar 1918 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

43

João Cesco

Hebar 1918 · D

8.0

Match Events

38'

41'

45+3'

46'

46'

46'

46'

B. Penchev← N. Nikolaev

48'

João Cesco

52'

Martin Moran

63'

Cheikh Diamanca Senghor

66'

Cheikh Diamanka

69'

A. Mishov← C. Boukholda

69'

J. Clifford← J. Tiboue

69'

L. Cordova← S. Faye

76'

J. Van Rankin← D. Lutumba-Pitah

79'

Martin Nikolov

85'

A. Kabov

87'

O. Hamdiev← Cheikh Diamanka

88'

Stilian Tisowski

90+3'

Petar Debarliev

90+6'

Georgi Aleksandrov

90+1'

R. Naydenov← M. Morán

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HebarEtar

Overview

55%Possession45%

9Total Shots9

1.17Expected Goals (xG)0.24

6Corners6

11Fouls18

Shots

9Total Shots9

3On Target3

1Off Target4

5Blocked2

2Inside Box2

7Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

335Total Passes314

277Accurate Passes243

83%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls18

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

3Offsides2