Hebar 1918 vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo — First League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 53+ matches
Hebar 191841%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hebar 1918 creates 19% more chances
Season form · 53 home / 66 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hebar 1918 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hebar 1918 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.40 · 53 matches
Etar Veliko Tarnovo away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.79 · 66 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hebar 1918 attack 0.83 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.31
Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 0.80 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.10
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Hebar 1918 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Hebar 1918 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
Levski Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Cherno More Varna
BeroeEtar Veliko Tarnovo
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Slavia Sofia
Botev Vratsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
Septemvri Sofia
Dunav Ruse
Vereya Stara ZagoraIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hebar 1918 host Etar Veliko Tarnovo on Saturday, 6 April 2024 at 14:45. The match is part of the First League 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Hebar 1918 vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Hebar 1918 beat Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3-0 in First League on April 6, 2024.
Goals: M. Papazov (17', 78'), Cheikh Diamanka (90+4').
The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski in Pazardzhik.