Etar Veliko Tarnovo 0–1 Hebar 1918: Result & Stats

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hebar 1918

S. Kamenov 72'

5/10/2026

Second League · Round 32Ivajlo Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo49%

×Draw25%

Hebar 191826%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Etar Veliko TarnovoExpected goals in this matchHebar 1918

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.08

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.60

Hebar 1918

1.08

Etar Veliko Tarnovo creates 48% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 56 away

1.83

creates per match

1.29

0.88

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.83

Hebar 1918

1.29

allows per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

0.88

Hebar 1918

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar Veliko Tarnovo ↓

Hebar 1918 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or draw

74%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or Hebar 1918

75%

Draw or Hebar 1918

51%

Winning margin

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+

26%

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals

80%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals

47%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals

22%

Hebar 1918 1+ goals

66%

Hebar 1918 2+ goals

29%

Hebar 1918 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)

66%

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.88 · 72 matches

Hebar 1918 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.83 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.60

Hebar 1918 attack 1.29 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more

49%

level

25%

Hebar 1918 scores more

26%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Etar Veliko Tarnovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

55'

60'

61'

61'

T. Ushagelov← K. Velichkov

61'

R. Ivanov← A. Atanasov

61'

Z. Pehlivanov← R. Nepeypiev

61'

S. Kamenov← E. Martinov

70'

T. Chavorski← Y. Angelov

72'

G. Aleksandrov

72'

S. Kamenov

81'

G. Ivanov← C. Ivaylov

81'

88'

89'

90+4'

90'

M. Dadakov← D. Aleksandrov

Etar

Hebar

24

▼

Nepeypiev

33

Tilev

11

▼

Aleksandr

14

▼

Martinov

29

▼

27

20

17

23

1

77

21

▼

15

4

8

13

10

▼

Ivaylov

11

Traykov

17

▼

Atanasov

27

Stoyancho

19

▼

Velichkov

1

Martinov

Manager: Zhivko Zhelev

61'▲T. Ushagelov←▼K. Velichkov

61'▲R. Ivanov←▼A. Atanasov

81'▲G. Ivanov←▼C. Ivaylov

81'▲T. Tsanev←▼I. Markov

Etar Veliko Tarnovo substitutes

23Videnov77Nikolov9Ushagelov6Ivanov28Belaliev5Varbishki7Ivanov25Tsvetkov20Tsanev

Manager: Nikolay Mitov

61'▲Z. Pehlivanov←▼R. Nepeypiev

61'▲S. Kamenov←▼E. Martinov

70'▲T. Chavorski←▼Y. Angelov

90'▲M. Dadakov←▼D. Aleksandrov

Hebar 1918 substitutes

99Yankov15Vidinov18Pergelov8Pehlivanov2Kamenov19Dadakov88Tisovski10Chavorski70Petrov

Match Recap: Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Hebar 1918

Hebar 1918 beat Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1-0 in Second League on May 10, 2026.

Goals: S. Kamenov (72').

The match was played at Ivajlo Stadion in Veliko Tarnovo.

Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Hebar 1918 — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Hebar 1918