Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2–5 Hebar 1918: Result & Stats

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

FT

2 – 5

HT: 2 – 2

Hebar 1918

C. Boukholda 34'

I. Dimitrov 12'

R. Mazáň 71'

A. Bastunov 53'

N. Penev 49'

G. Nikolov 45+1', 4'

10/8/2023

First League · Round 13Stadion Ivailo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo45%

×Draw26%

Hebar 191829%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Etar Veliko TarnovoExpected goals in this matchHebar 1918

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.11

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.45

Hebar 1918

1.11

Etar Veliko Tarnovo creates 31% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 54 away

1.08

creates per match

0.91

1.31

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.08

Hebar 1918

0.91

allows per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.31

Hebar 1918

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar Veliko Tarnovo ↓

Hebar 1918 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or draw

71%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or Hebar 1918

74%

Draw or Hebar 1918

55%

Winning margin

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+

22%

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals

77%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals

42%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals

18%

Hebar 1918 1+ goals

67%

Hebar 1918 2+ goals

30%

Hebar 1918 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)

61%

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Hebar 1918 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.81 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.08 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.45

Hebar 1918 attack 0.91 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more

45%

level

26%

Hebar 1918 scores more

29%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Etar Veliko Tarnovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

12'

31'

34'

45+1'

46'

46'

A. Kabov← O. Zbun

47'

49'

52'

53'

55'

59'

M. Toshev← C. Boukholda

60'

N. Yankov← I. Budinov

71'

R. Mazáň

72'

L. Knežević← D. Bakalov

72'

J. Betegón← I. Dimitrov

77'

Georgi Nikolov

79'

S. Tisovski← N. Penev

82'

G. Aleksandrov← V. Hristov

90+1'

Atanas Kabov

90+2'

S. Tsonkov← A. Bastunov

Possession

Shots

Statistics

EtarHebar

Overview

52%Possession48%

6Total Shots5

7Corners1

13Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots5

3On Target5

Passing

52%Possession48%

Discipline

13Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1