Haugesund 0–3 Ham-Kam: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Haugesund

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Ham-Kam

M. Mawa 55'

K. Lien 28'

G. Simenstad 23'

7/26/2025

Eliteserien · Round 15Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Haugesund41%

×Draw26%

Ham-Kam33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchHam-Kam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.21

Haugesund

1.39

Ham-Kam

1.21

Haugesund creates 15% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 27 away

1.03

creates per match

1.04

1.38

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Haugesund

1.03

Ham-Kam

1.04

allows per match

Haugesund

1.38

Ham-Kam

1.74

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Haugesund-0.09on par

Ham-Kam-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Ham-Kam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

67%

Haugesund or Ham-Kam

74%

Draw or Ham-Kam

59%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

19%

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

75%

Haugesund 2+ goals

40%

Haugesund 3+ goals

16%

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

70%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

34%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

56%

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.03 + Ham-Kam defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.39

Ham-Kam attack 1.04 + Haugesund defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Haugesund scores more

41%

level

26%

Ham-Kam scores more

33%

Haugesund at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

G. Simenstad

Ham-Kam

8.2

Match Events

23'

G. Simenstad↳ A. Ekeroth

28'

K. Lien↳ S. Nilsen

46'

C. Niyukuri← E. Rohd

46'

M. Konradsen← P. Bizoza

46'

H. V. Karlsen← S. Diarra

53'

E. Helgeland← O. Krusnell

55'

M. Mawa↳ A. Roaldsoy

68'

M. Pedersen← K. Lien

75'

A. Potur← A. Roaldsoy

76'

L. Eide← M. Fischer

76'

J. Gonstad← M. Mawa

87'

W. Osnes-Ringen← S. Nilsen

87'

V. Jonsson← T. Soras

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundHam-Kam

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots10

0.81Expected Goals (xG)1.28

5Corners8

10Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots10

4On Target4

4Off Target2

3Blocked4

6Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

475Total Passes493

386Accurate Passes404

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls8

3Offsides1