Ham-Kam 2–2 Haugesund: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Ham-Kam

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Haugesund

J. Norheim 74'

N. Ødegård 4'

M. Konradsen 61'

S. Diarra 59'

5/12/2024

Eliteserien · Round 7Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Ham-Kam46%

×Draw23%

Haugesund31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ham-KamExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.42

Ham-Kam

1.76

Haugesund

1.42

Ham-Kam creates 24% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 17 away

1.34

creates per match

1.24

1.59

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Ham-Kam

1.34

Haugesund

1.24

allows per match

Ham-Kam

1.59

Haugesund

2.18

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Ham-Kam+0.47scores more

Haugesund-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ham-Kam ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Ham-Kam or draw

69%

Ham-Kam or Haugesund

77%

Draw or Haugesund

54%

Winning margin

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

24%

Haugesund wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

83%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

52%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

26%

Haugesund 1+ goals

76%

Haugesund 2+ goals

41%

Haugesund 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

59%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ham-Kam at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.59 · 32 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ham-Kam attack 1.34 + Haugesund defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.76

Haugesund attack 1.24 + Ham-Kam defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ham-Kam scores more

46%

level

23%

Haugesund scores more

31%

Ham-Kam at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ham-Kam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

G. Simenstad

Ham-Kam · M

7.3

Match Events

4'

N. Ødegård↳ H. Udahl

21'

Fredrik Sjolstad

26'

Henrik UdahlGoal cancelled

43'

Bruno Leite

58'

Anders Baertelsen

59'

S. Diarra

60'

C. Niyukuri← H. Karlsson

61'

M. Konradsen↳ O. Krusnell

64'

P. Kirkevold← K. Onsrud

64'

M. Mawa← H. Udahl

69'

S. Innvær← S. Tounekti

71'

A. Ødegård← V. Jónsson

71'

J. Gonstad← N. Ødegård

74'

J. Norheim↳ W. Kurtović

82'

A. Lúðvíksson← Bruno Leite

82'

M. Samuelsen← M. Konradsen

87'

B. Bjarnason← F. Sjølstad

90'

Vegard Kongsro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ham-KamHaugesund

Overview

36%Possession64%

11Total Shots15

1.34Expected Goals (xG)1.38

2Corners3

11Fouls6

Shots

11Total Shots15

3On Target4

3Off Target5

5Blocked6

7Inside Box8

4Outside Box7

Passing

36%Possession64%

323Total Passes598

236Accurate Passes510

73%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls6

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0