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Haugesund vs Fredrikstad — Eliteserien 2026

Haugesund
Haugesund
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
4/27/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 4Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Haugesund38%
×Draw26%
Fredrikstad35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haugesund
1.33
Fredrikstad
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 33 away

creates per match

Haugesund
1.05
Fredrikstad
1.13

allows per match

Haugesund
1.39
Fredrikstad
1.61

finishing

Haugesund-0.05on par
Fredrikstad-0.04on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Fredrikstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw
65%
Haugesund or Fredrikstad
74%
Draw or Fredrikstad
62%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+
17%
Fredrikstad wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals
74%
Haugesund 2+ goals
38%
Haugesund 3+ goals
15%
Fredrikstad 1+ goals
72%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
36%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)
52%
Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.39 · 15 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.05 + Fredrikstad defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.33

Fredrikstad attack 1.13 + Haugesund defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Haugesund scores more
38%
level
26%
Fredrikstad scores more
35%

Haugesund at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

55
M. DiaHaugesundHaugesund
8.0

Match Events

37'
Ulrik Fredriksen
45+1'
Mikkel Fischer
46'
E. Rohd← R. Espejord
60'
S. Sorlokk← H. Skogvold
63'
P. Bizoza← B. Leite
63'
M. Samuelsen← I. Seone
68'
R. R. Shein← E. Holten
72'
Fallou Fall
76'
I. Camara← V. Solheim
80'
S. Rafn← D. Eid
80'
B. Faraas← O. Ohlenschlaeger
90+2'
Ismael Camara

Possession

42%Haugesund

Shots

9Haugesund

Pass accuracy

47%Haugesund

Statistics

HaugesundFredrikstad
Overview
42%Possession58%
9Total Shots13
0.38Expected Goals (xG)0.58
2Corners10
9Fouls9
Shots
9Total Shots13
1On Target4
6Off Target6
2Blocked3
5Inside Box6
4Outside Box7
Passing
42%Possession58%
345Total Passes479
243Accurate Passes377
70%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls9
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Haugesund vs Fredrikstad

Haugesund and Fredrikstad drew 0-0 in Eliteserien on April 27, 2025.

Fredrikstad controlled possession (58%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Haugesund Stadion in Haugesund.