Haugesund 1–0 Fredrikstad: Result & Stats

Haugesund

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fredrikstad

T. Nyhammer 85'

8/25/2024

Eliteserien · Round 20Haugesund Sparebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Haugesund38%

×Draw26%

Fredrikstad35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.26

Haugesund

1.33

Fredrikstad

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 33 away

1.05

creates per match

1.13

1.39

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Haugesund

1.05

Fredrikstad

1.13

allows per match

Haugesund

1.39

Fredrikstad

1.61

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Haugesund-0.05on par

Fredrikstad-0.04on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

65%

Haugesund or Fredrikstad

74%

Draw or Fredrikstad

62%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

17%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

74%

Haugesund 2+ goals

38%

Haugesund 3+ goals

15%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

72%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

36%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

52%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.39 · 15 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.05 + Fredrikstad defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.33

Fredrikstad attack 1.13 + Haugesund defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Haugesund scores more

38%

level

26%

Fredrikstad scores more

35%

Haugesund at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Eskesen

Haugesund · F

8.0

Match Events

65'

S. Innvær← M. Sauer

65'

M. Hope← M. Fischer

65'

M. Bjørlo← B. Hendriksson

65'

H. Johansen← H. Skogvold

72'

P. Metcalfe← S. Sørløkk

72'

J. Kjær← M. Traoré

74'

T. Nyhammer← S. Liseth

74'

M. Konradsen← P. Bizoza

83'

S. Rafn← D. Eid

85'

T. Nyhammer↳ S. Diarra

88'

M. Dia← S. Tounekti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundFredrikstad

Overview

62%Possession38%

14Total Shots10

1.04Expected Goals (xG)0.80

5Corners3

7Fouls5

Shots

14Total Shots10

3On Target2

7Off Target3

4Blocked5

9Inside Box8

5Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

523Total Passes323

414Accurate Passes219

79%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls5

0Offsides3