Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fredrikstad vs Haugesund — Eliteserien 2026

Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Haugesund
Haugesund
M. Traoré 90+3'
8/14/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 12Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Fredrikstad52%
×Draw22%
Haugesund26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fredrikstad
1.90
Haugesund
1.29

Fredrikstad creates 47% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 15 away

creates per match

Fredrikstad
1.60
Haugesund
1.25

allows per match

Fredrikstad
1.33
Haugesund
2.20

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less
Haugesund-0.12scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Haugesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw
74%
Fredrikstad or Haugesund
78%
Draw or Haugesund
48%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+
29%
Haugesund wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals
85%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
56%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
29%
Haugesund 1+ goals
72%
Haugesund 2+ goals
37%
Haugesund 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
66%
Haugesund (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Haugesund defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.90

Haugesund attack 1.25 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fredrikstad scores more
52%
level
22%
Haugesund scores more
26%

Fredrikstad at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. BjørloFredrikstadFredrikstad · M
7.9

Match Events

59'
M. Traoré← J. Kjær
59'
J. Bjartalíð← P. Metcalfe
63'
M. Konradsen← Bruno Leite
63'
A. Lúðvíksson← S. Innvær
69'
B. Hendriksson← M. Bjørlo
69'
H. Johansen← S. Sørløkk
77'
L. Begby← S. Molde
77'
T. Nyhammer← S. Liseth
80'
Ulrik Fredriksen
90+3'
M. Traoré

Possession

51%Fredrikstad

Shots

14Fredrikstad

Pass accuracy

50%Fredrikstad

Statistics

FredrikstadHaugesund
Overview
51%Possession49%
14Total Shots13
2.49Expected Goals (xG)0.98
6Corners1
11Fouls7
Shots
14Total Shots13
8On Target3
2Off Target7
4Blocked3
14Inside Box6
0Outside Box7
Passing
51%Possession49%
472Total Passes473
401Accurate Passes399
85%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
11Fouls7
0Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

Eliteserien: Fredrikstad 1–0 Haugesund

Fredrikstad beat Haugesund 1-0 in Eliteserien on August 14, 2024.

Goals: M. Traoré (90+3').

Fredrikstad controlled possession (51%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion in Fredrikstad.