Fredrikstad 2–2 Haugesund: Result & Stats

Fredrikstad

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Haugesund

J. Nunez 25'

H. Skogvold 2'

P. Metcalfe 36' (OG)

M. Hope 8'

8/31/2025

Eliteserien · Round 20Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Fredrikstad52%

×Draw22%

Haugesund26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FredrikstadExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.29

Fredrikstad

1.90

Haugesund

1.29

Fredrikstad creates 47% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 15 away

1.60

creates per match

1.25

1.33

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Fredrikstad

1.60

Haugesund

1.25

allows per match

Fredrikstad

1.33

Haugesund

2.20

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less

Haugesund-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw

74%

Fredrikstad or Haugesund

78%

Draw or Haugesund

48%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

29%

Haugesund wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

85%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

56%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

29%

Haugesund 1+ goals

72%

Haugesund 2+ goals

37%

Haugesund 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

66%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Haugesund defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.90

Haugesund attack 1.25 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fredrikstad scores more

52%

level

22%

Haugesund scores more

26%

Fredrikstad at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

M. Woledzi

Fredrikstad · D

7.9

Match Events

2'

H. Skogvold↳ J. Bjartalid

8'

M. Hope

25'

J. Nunez↳ R. R. Shein

35'

Rocco Robert Shein

36'

P. MetcalfeOwn goal

63'

S. Molde← S. Rafn

63'

S. Sorlokk← J. Bjartalid

69'

I. Kukleci← M. Fischer

69'

B. Leite← A. Grindhaug

69'

I. Camara← S. Diarra

77'

I. Seone← C. Niyukuri

79'

D. Eid← R. R. Shein

82'

S. Kvile← S. Owusu

85'

E. Helgeland← E. Rohd

90+5'

Daniel Eid

90+1'

Bruno Leite

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FredrikstadHaugesund

Overview

56%Possession44%

19Total Shots12

3.14Expected Goals (xG)1.38

5Corners0

10Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots12

3On Target3

8Off Target5

8Blocked4

12Inside Box5

7Outside Box7

Passing

56%Possession44%

556Total Passes448

476Accurate Passes367

86%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides4