Hammarby FF 1–0 Djurgardens IF: Result & Stats

Hammarby FF

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Djurgardens IF

P. Abraham 90'

3/15/2026

Svenska Cupen · Quarter-finals3Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Hammarby FF38%

×Draw21%

Djurgardens IF41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hammarby FFExpected goals in this matchDjurgardens IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

2.02

Hammarby FF

1.93

Djurgardens IF

2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

3.05

creates per match

3.25

0.79

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Hammarby FF

3.05

Djurgardens IF

3.25

allows per match

Hammarby FF

0.79

Djurgardens IF

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

Djurgardens IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw

59%

Hammarby FF or Djurgardens IF

79%

Draw or Djurgardens IF

62%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

20%

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

85%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

57%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

30%

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

87%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

60%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

48%

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 3.05, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 3.05 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.93

Djurgardens IF attack 3.25 + Hammarby FF defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hammarby FF scores more

38%

level

21%

Djurgardens IF scores more

41%

Djurgardens IF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

M. Larsson

38'

J. Une-Larsson

61'

M. Karlsson

69'

P. Aslund← O. Fallenius

75'

P. Langhoff← H. Finndell

75'

M. Marques← M. Tenho

81'

V. Lind← O. Johansson

87'

90+6'

90+7'

90+7'

90+10'

90+3'

90+8'

90+2'

L. Hien← J. Une-Larsson

90+3'

K. Jawla← B. Hegland

90'

P. Abraham

Hammarby

Djurgardens

35

Rinne

2

Johansson

5

▼

Tenho

4

▼

Une-Larss

24

Larsson

14

▼

Finndell

20

Siltanen

10

Anderson

16

▼

Hegland

15

▼

9

1

2

4

3

16

8

28

26

▼

Madjed

20

Besara

11

▼

Johansson

7

⚽

▼

Abraham

81'▲V. Lind←▼O. Johansson

90+3'▲I. Fofana←▼M. Madjed

90+8'▲N. Vasic←▼P. Abraham

Hammarby FF substitutes

27Jakobsson6Fofana9Lind17Okeke19Vasic21Kone22Lindberg29Kabore31Branby

Manager: Jani Honkavaara

69'▲P. Aslund←▼O. Fallenius

75'▲P. Langhoff←▼H. Finndell

75'▲M. Marques←▼M. Tenho

90+2'▲L. Hien←▼J. Une-Larsson

90+3'▲K. Jawla←▼B. Hegland

Djurgardens IF substitutes

3Hien6Langhoff8Aslund17Saeed21Marques25Jawla27Vucenovic37Selfven45Manojlovic

Match Recap: Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF

Hammarby FF beat Djurgardens IF 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on March 15, 2026.

Goals: P. Abraham (90').

The match was played at 3Arena in Stockholm.

Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF