Djurgardens IF 3–3 Hammarby FF: Result & Stats

Djurgardens IF

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Hammarby FF

A. Stahl 90'

M. Karlsson 55' (OG)

J. Okkels 22'

M. Madjed 68'

N. Besara 16'

M. Karlsson 13'

9/14/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 233Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Djurgardens IF37%

×Draw28%

Hammarby FF35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djurgardens IFExpected goals in this matchHammarby FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.14

Djurgardens IF

1.17

Hammarby FF

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

1.40

creates per match

1.22

1.05

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Djurgardens IF

1.40

Hammarby FF

1.22

allows per match

Djurgardens IF

1.05

Hammarby FF

0.93

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Djurgardens IF-0.26scores less

Hammarby FF-0.07on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Hammarby FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw

65%

Djurgardens IF or Hammarby FF

72%

Draw or Hammarby FF

63%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

15%

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

69%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

33%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

11%

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

68%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

32%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

51%

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.05 · 7 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.93 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 1.40 + Hammarby FF defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.17

Hammarby FF attack 1.22 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more

37%

level

28%

Hammarby FF scores more

35%

Djurgardens IF at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

A. Stahl

Djurgardens IF · M

8.7

Match Events

13'

M. Karlsson

16'

N. Besara

22'

J. Okkels↳ R. Schuller

24'

Mikael Anderson

29'

Victor Eriksson

55'

M. KarlssonOwn goal

63'

D. Stensson← R. Schuller

63'

O. Fallenius← T. Bergvall

65'

M. Madjed← F. Junior Adjei

68'

M. Madjed↳ P. Abraham

70'

T. Nguen← J. Okkels

79'

M. Tenho← J. Une-Larsson

79'

P. Aslund← M. Anderson

80'

S. Strand← P. Abraham

81'

Tesfaldet Tekie

89'

Warner Hahn

90+2'

Nahir Besara

90'

I. Fofana← O. Johansson

90'

A. Stahl↳ K. Kosugi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DjurgardensHammarby

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots13

0.86Expected Goals (xG)1.51

7Corners3

9Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots13

7On Target6

2Off Target4

1Blocked3

3Inside Box7

7Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

420Total Passes372

300Accurate Passes286

71%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls17

1Yellow Cards4

Match Recap: Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF

Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF drew 3-3 in Allsvenskan on September 14, 2025.

Goals: M. Karlsson (13', 55' o.g.), N. Besara (16'), J. Okkels (22'), M. Madjed (68'), A. Stahl (90').

Djurgardens IF controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at 3Arena in Stockholm.

Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF — Allsvenskan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF