Djurgardens IF 1–1 Hammarby FF: Result & Stats

Djurgardens IF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hammarby FF

K. Lien 9'

N. Besara 64'

4/26/2026

Allsvenskan · Round 53Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Djurgardens IF43%

×Draw27%

Hammarby FF30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djurgardens IFExpected goals in this matchHammarby FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.10

Djurgardens IF

1.36

Hammarby FF

1.10

Djurgardens IF creates 24% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

1.74

creates per match

1.15

1.06

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Djurgardens IF

1.74

Hammarby FF

1.15

allows per match

Djurgardens IF

1.06

Hammarby FF

0.98

-0.74scores less than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Djurgardens IF-0.74scores less

Hammarby FF-0.15scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Hammarby FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw

70%

Djurgardens IF or Hammarby FF

73%

Draw or Hammarby FF

57%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

20%

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

74%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

39%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

16%

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

67%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

30%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

59%

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.06 · 5 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.98 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 1.74 + Hammarby FF defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.36

Hammarby FF attack 1.15 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more

43%

level

27%

Hammarby FF scores more

30%

Djurgardens IF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

K. Lien

Djurgardens IF · F

7.9

Match Events

9'

K. Lien↳ H. Finndell

64'

N. Besara↳ O. Johansson

65'

J. Asoro← B. Hegland

65'

J. Okkels← P. Aslund

70'

N. Persson← V. Lind

73'

L. Hien← K. Lien

81'

M. Marques← J. Une

81'

A. Stahl← H. Finndell

83'

O. Hagen← M. Madjed

84'

Noah Persson

86'

Peter Langhoff

90+8'

F. Adjei← O. Johansson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DjurgardensHammarby

Overview

38%Possession62%

6Total Shots16

0.77Expected Goals (xG)0.87

1Corners2

20Fouls8

Shots

6Total Shots16

3On Target4

2Off Target6

1Blocked6

6Inside Box8

0Outside Box8

Passing

38%Possession62%

326Total Passes541

225Accurate Passes460

69%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4