Hammarby FF 2–0 Djurgardens IF: Result & Stats

Hammarby FF

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Djurgardens IF

N. Besara 30', 12'

10/21/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 27Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Hammarby FF48%

×Draw24%

Djurgardens IF27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hammarby FFExpected goals in this matchDjurgardens IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.20

Hammarby FF

1.67

Djurgardens IF

1.20

Hammarby FF creates 39% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 125 away

2.27

creates per match

1.40

1.00

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Hammarby FF

2.27

Djurgardens IF

1.40

allows per match

Hammarby FF

1.00

Djurgardens IF

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

Djurgardens IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw

73%

Hammarby FF or Djurgardens IF

76%

Draw or Djurgardens IF

52%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

26%

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

81%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

50%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

23%

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

70%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

34%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

64%

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.00 · 128 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.07 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 2.27 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.67

Djurgardens IF attack 1.40 + Hammarby FF defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hammarby FF scores more

48%

level

24%

Djurgardens IF scores more

27%

Hammarby FF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

N. Besara

Hammarby FF · M

8.6

Match Events

12'

30'

37'

53'

59'

T. Gulliksen← G. Wikheim

59'

D. Hümmet← J. Une Larsson

59'

T. Nguen← S. Haarala

71'

I. Fofana← J. Erabi

76'

S. Strand← S. Pinas

76'

M. Eriksson← K. Kosugi

76'

V. Bergh← M. Tenho

76'

H. Radetinac← R. Schüller

85'

87'

90+6'

90+3'

90+7'

90+1'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HammarbyDjurgardens

Overview

54%Possession46%

9Total Shots13

6Corners7

16Fouls18

Shots

9Total Shots13

4On Target4

2Off Target3

3Blocked6

6Inside Box9

3Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

435Total Passes370

348Accurate Passes261

80%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls18

2Yellow Cards4

4Offsides1