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Hamburger SV vs FC Ingolstadt 04 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Ingolstadt 04
M. Wintzheimer 89'
B. Jatta 39'
F. Alidou 12'
11/28/20212. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 15Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Hamburger SV52%
×Draw24%
FC Ingolstadt 0424%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamburger SV
1.75
FC Ingolstadt 04
1.10

Hamburger SV creates 59% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 59 away

creates per match

Hamburger SV
2.15
FC Ingolstadt 04
1.12

allows per match

Hamburger SV
1.09
FC Ingolstadt 04
1.36

finishing

Hamburger SV+0.00on par
FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV ↓

FC Ingolstadt 04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hamburger SV or draw
76%
Hamburger SV or FC Ingolstadt 04
76%
Draw or FC Ingolstadt 04
48%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV wins by 2+
29%
FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hamburger SV 1+ goals
83%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
52%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
25%
FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals
67%
FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals
30%
FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
69%
FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.09 · 109 matches

FC Ingolstadt 04 away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV attack 2.15 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.75

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.12 + Hamburger SV defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hamburger SV scores more
52%
level
24%
FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more
24%

Hamburger SV at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
M. JohanssonHamburger SVHamburger SV · G
7.9

Match Events

12'
F. Alidou
39'
B. Jatta↳ S. Kittel
46'
J. Butler← M. Beister
61'
D. Linsmayer← T. Keller
61'
D. Franke← M. Gaus
61'
M. Neuberger← M. Heinloth
74'
M. Wintzheimer← F. Alidou
74'
R. Meißner← B. Jatta
78'
Robert Glatzel
79'
M. Kaufmann← R. Glatzel
84'
F. Kaya← M. Stendera
85'
A. Suhonen← S. Kittel
85'
D. Kinsombi← L. Reis
89'
M. Wintzheimer↳ A. Suhonen

Possession

62%Hamburger

Shots

21Hamburger

Pass accuracy

55%Hamburger

Statistics

HamburgerFC
Overview
62%Possession38%
21Total Shots13
7Corners5
10Fouls8
Shots
21Total Shots13
8On Target5
6Off Target4
7Blocked4
17Inside Box7
4Outside Box6
Passing
62%Possession38%
513Total Passes311
428Accurate Passes215
83%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls8
1Yellow Cards0
0Offsides5

2. Bundesliga: Hamburger SV 3–0 FC Ingolstadt 04

Hamburger SV beat FC Ingolstadt 04 3-0 in 2. Bundesliga on November 28, 2021.

Goals: F. Alidou (12'), B. Jatta (39'), M. Wintzheimer (89').

Hamburger SV controlled possession (62%) and registered 21 shots to 13.

The match was played at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg.